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Ecuador · Serie A

24 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC

EMELEC vs MUSHUC RUNA

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Mushuc Runa

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Juan Ruíz — Emelec

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ronie Carrillo (penalty) — Mushuc Runa

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Mushuc Runa
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 35% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 60 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 350 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 401 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 94 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
271 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
174 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
246 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
133 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
343 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
382 predictions

Match overview