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Bulgaria · A PFG · First Professional League

18 Jul 2026 16:00 UTC

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA vs ARDA KARDZHALI

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Septemvri Sofia

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Birsent Karagaren — Arda Kardzhali

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sebas Wade — Septemvri Sofia

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
Arda Kardzhali
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 70 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 291 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 369 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 91 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
266 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
188 predictions
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
107 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
225 predictions
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
301 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
347 predictions

Match overview