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31 May 2026 14:00 UTC

SAO BERNARDO vs NOVORIZONTINO

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Sao Bernardo

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Romulo (penalty) — Novorizontino
⚽ Pedro Vitor — Sao Bernardo

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Novorizontino

Result: Draw

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

48%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under

28%

Total 3.5

Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under

28%

Total 4.5

Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under

16%

Score

2:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 45 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 371 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 306 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 55% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 12% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 38 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)

Both teams to score 58% (Good)

Total 1.5 58% (Good)

Total 2.5 63% (Good)

Total 3.5 84% (Strong)

Total 4.5 95% (Strong)

Score 16% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)

187 predictions

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

165 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

213 predictions

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

92 predictions

Total 3.5 18% (Weak)

33 predictions

Total 4.5 0% (Weak)

9 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Sao Bernardo vs Novorizontino after full time. The match ended 1-1 in Brazil · Serie B. Pre-match projections pointed to Novorizontino with a marginal edge at 36.6%.

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 90.9% of matches across a sample of 306 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 57.9% in a sample of 38 team involvements.

Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) was identified as a strong signal and aligned with the result. Over 2.5 goals (48%) did not match the outcome, both teams to score (48.2%) was confirmed by the match.

The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

SAO BERNARDO vs NOVORIZONTINO

Match timeline

1st half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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