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France · Ligue 1

17 May 2026 19:00 UTC

MARSEILLE vs RENNES

Final 3:1

Top match Marseille won Last goal: Rennes

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · assist Mason Greenwood — Marseille
  2. ⚽ Amine Gouiri — Marseille

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · assist Pierre-Emile Højbjerg — Marseille
  2. ⚽ Estéban Lepaul · assist Arnaud Nordin — Rennes

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
44%
1X2
Marseille
90-minute result: Marseille
Lucky hit
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 48% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 92 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 304 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 293 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 64 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
217 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
188 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
247 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
170 predictions
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
202 predictions
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
251 predictions

Match overview