← Back to matches

France · Ligue 1

17 May 2026 19:00 UTC

PARIS FC vs PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

Final 2:1

Top match Paris FC won Last goal: Paris FC

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Bradley Barcola · assist Fabián Ruiz — Paris Saint-Germain
  2. ⚽ Alimami Gory · assist Pierre Lees-Melou — Paris FC
  3. ⚽ Alimami Gory · assist Luca Koleosho — Paris FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
49%
1X2
Paris Saint-Germain
90-minute result: Paris FC
Lucky hit
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
45%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
45%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
2:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 48 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 304 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 293 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 54% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 64 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 58% (Good)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
217 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
188 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
247 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
170 predictions
Total 3.5 27% (Weak)
91 predictions
Total 4.5 5% (Weak)
42 predictions

Match overview