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Netherlands · KNVB Cup

19 Apr 2026 16:00 UTC

AZ ALKMAAR vs NEC NIJMEGEN

Final 5:1

AZ Alkmaar won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mees de Wit — AZ Alkmaar

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sven Mijnans — AZ Alkmaar
  2. ⚽ Peer Koopmeiners — AZ Alkmaar
  3. ⚽ Koki Ogawa — NEC Nijmegen
  4. ⚽ Troy Parrott — AZ Alkmaar
  5. ⚽ Kees Smit — AZ Alkmaar

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Favorite
51%
1X2
NEC Nijmegen
90-minute result: AZ Alkmaar
Solid call
66%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
69%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
45%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
25%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 57% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 7 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 56 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 55 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 47% (Average)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 63% (Good)
Both teams to score 88% (Strong)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 75% (Strong)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 38% (Weak)
Score 25% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
41 predictions
Both teams to score 73% (Strong)
33 predictions
Total 1.5 91% (Strong)
45 predictions
Total 2.5 77% (Strong)
35 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
30 predictions
Total 4.5 51% (Average)
45 predictions

Match overview