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Netherlands · KNVB Cup

03 Mar 2026 19:00 UTC

NEC NIJMEGEN vs PSV EINDHOVEN

Final 3:2

NEC Nijmegen won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bryan Linssen — NEC Nijmegen
  2. ⚽ Ismael Saibari — PSV Eindhoven
  3. ⚽ Dennis Man — PSV Eindhoven
  4. ⚽ Eli Dasa — NEC Nijmegen

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Basar Önal — NEC Nijmegen

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Underdog
45%
1X2
NEC Nijmegen
90-minute result: NEC Nijmegen
Solid call
61%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
45%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
14%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 27% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 54 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 53 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 47% (Average)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 7 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 71% (Strong)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 100% (Strong)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 29% (Weak)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
39 predictions
Both teams to score 71% (Strong)
31 predictions
Total 1.5 91% (Strong)
43 predictions
Total 2.5 76% (Strong)
33 predictions
Total 3.5 39% (Weak)
28 predictions
Total 4.5 51% (Average)
43 predictions

Match overview