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Netherlands · KNVB Cup

04 Mar 2026 19:00 UTC

AZ ALKMAAR vs TELSTAR

Final 2:1 Almanac Moment

AZ Alkmaar won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Danny Bakker — AZ Alkmaar
  2. ⚽ Neville Ogidi Nwankwo — AZ Alkmaar
  3. ⚽ Kay Tejan — Telstar

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
90-minute result: AZ Alkmaar
Solid call
66%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
37%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
37%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
6%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 12 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 55 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 54 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 44% (Weak)
Total 4.5 46% (Average)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 17% (Weak)
Total 3.5 17% (Weak)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
40 predictions
Both teams to score 72% (Strong)
32 predictions
Total 1.5 91% (Strong)
44 predictions
Total 2.5 76% (Strong)
34 predictions
Total 3.5 38% (Weak)
29 predictions
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
44 predictions

Match overview