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Ecuador · Serie A

20 Jul 2026 00:15 UTC

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE vs EMELEC

Final 6:1

Independiente del Valle won Last goal: Independiente del Valle

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Romario Caicedo (own goal) — Independiente del Valle
  2. ⚽ Matías Perelló — Independiente del Valle
  3. ⚽ Emerson Pata — Independiente del Valle

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Luca Klimowicz — Emelec
  2. ⚽ Arón Rodríguez — Independiente del Valle
  3. ⚽ Juan Angulo — Independiente del Valle
  4. ⚽ Yandri Vásquez — Independiente del Valle

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Independiente del Valle
90-minute result: Independiente del Valle
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
11%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 6:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 49% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 107 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 344 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 394 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 96 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
266 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
220 predictions
Total 1.5 34% (Weak)
149 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
261 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
336 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
375 predictions

Match overview