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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

15 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

ENGLAND vs ARGENTINA

Final 1:2

Argentina won Last goal: Argentina

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Anthony Gordon · assist Morgan Rogers — England
  2. ⚽ Enzo Fernández · assist Lionel Messi — Argentina
  3. ⚽ Lautaro Martínez · assist Lionel Messi — Argentina

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
England
90-minute result: Argentina
Lucky hit
38%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 67% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 18 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 95 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 96 completed matches.

1X2 58% (Good)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 9 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 44% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 58% (Good)
81 predictions
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
56 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
79 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
50 predictions
Total 3.5 39% (Weak)
23 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
86 predictions

Match overview