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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

10 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

SPAIN vs BELGIUM

Final 2:1

Top match Spain won Last goal: Spain

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Fabián Ruiz — Spain
  2. ⚽ Charles De Ketelaere · assist Timothy Castagne — Belgium

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Mikel Merino — Spain

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
43%
1X2
Spain
90-minute result: Spain
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
64%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 65% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 17 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 91 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 93 completed matches.

1X2 59% (Good)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 10 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 80% (Strong)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 70% (Strong)
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 59% (Good)
78 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
39 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
76 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
45 predictions
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
72 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
84 predictions

Match overview