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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

14 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

FRANCE vs SPAIN

Final 0:2

Spain won Last goal: Spain

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mikel Oyarzabal (penalty) — Spain

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Pedro Porro · assist Dani Olmo — Spain

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
48%
1X2
Spain
90-minute result: Spain
No surprise
38%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 9 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 94 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 95 completed matches.

1X2 58% (Good)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 12 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 58% (Good)
80 predictions
Both teams to score 64% (Good)
55 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
78 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
49 predictions
Total 3.5 41% (Weak)
22 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
85 predictions

Match overview