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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

06 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC

PORTUGAL vs SPAIN

Final 0:1

Spain won Last goal: Spain

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Mikel Merino · assist Ferran Torres — Spain

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Portugal
90-minute result: Spain
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Big miss
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
64%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 69% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 85 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 87 completed matches.

1X2 60% (Good)
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 15% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 38% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 60% (Good)
72 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
38 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
70 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
44 predictions
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
69 predictions
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
78 predictions

Match overview