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USA · USL League One

21 Jun 2026 00:30 UTC

CORPUS CHRISTI vs SARASOTA PARADISE

Final 4:1

Corpus Christi won Last goal: Corpus Christi

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jake Keegan — Corpus Christi
  2. ⚽ Jake Keegan — Corpus Christi

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Aaron Walker (penalty) — Sarasota Paradise
  2. ⚽ Enock Kwakwa — Corpus Christi
  3. ⚽ Kaihim Thomas — Corpus Christi

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Corpus Christi
90-minute result: Corpus Christi
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 15 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 246 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 208 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 22 past matches

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 36% (Weak)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
147 predictions
Both teams to score 39% (Weak)
77 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
165 predictions
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
112 predictions
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
152 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
187 predictions

Match overview