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USA · USL League One

21 Jun 2026 00:00 UTC

FORWARD MADISON FC vs COSMOS

Final 3:1

Forward Madison FC won Last goal: Cosmos

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ryan Carmichael — Forward Madison FC
  2. ⚽ Roman Torres — Forward Madison FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jackson Castro — Forward Madison FC
  2. ⚽ Sebastian Guenzatti — Cosmos

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Forward Madison FC
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 91 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 246 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 208 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 33 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
147 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
131 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
165 predictions
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
112 predictions
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
152 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
187 predictions

Match overview