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Spain · Segunda División · LaLiga2 Playoff

20 Jun 2026 19:30 UTC

ALMERIA vs MALAGA

Final 1:2

Malaga won Last goal: Almeria

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Chupe — Malaga
  2. ⚽ David Larrubia — Malaga
  3. ⚽ Léo Baptistão — Almeria
  4. 🟥 Thalys (straight red) — Almeria
  5. 🟥 Aaron Ochoa (2nd yellow) — Malaga

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
37%
1X2
Malaga
90-minute result: Malaga
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
31%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
12%
Score
2:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 106 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 470 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 457 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 85 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
337 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
257 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
331 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
205 predictions
Total 3.5 30% (Weak)
101 predictions
Total 4.5 8% (Weak)
39 predictions

Match overview