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Spain · Segunda División · LaLiga2 Playoff

09 Jun 2026 19:00 UTC

ALMERIA vs CASTELLON

Final 3:2

Almeria won Last goal: Almeria

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Adri Embarba — Almeria

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Alex Calatrava — Castellon
  2. ⚽ Agustín Sienra — Castellon
  3. ⚽ Álex Muñoz — Almeria
  4. ⚽ Stefan Dzodic — Almeria

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Castellon
90-minute result: Almeria
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
14%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 105 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 468 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 454 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 81 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
334 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
256 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
328 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
204 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
353 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
415 predictions

Match overview