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Spain · Segunda División · LaLiga2 Playoff

07 Jun 2026 19:00 UTC

LAS PALMAS vs MALAGA

Final 0:1

Malaga won Last goal: Malaga

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ David Larrubia — Malaga

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Las Palmas
90-minute result: Malaga
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
15%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 143 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 467 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 453 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 81 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 15% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
333 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
255 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
327 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
203 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
352 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
414 predictions

Match overview