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Spain · LaLiga

24 May 2026 19:00 UTC

VILLARREAL vs ATLETICO MADRID

Final 5:1

Top match Villarreal won Last goal: Villarreal

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Dani Parejo (penalty) — Villarreal
  2. ⚽ Ayoze Pérez — Villarreal
  3. ⚽ Georges Mikautadze · assist Ayoze Pérez — Villarreal
  4. ⚽ Marc Pubill · assist Antoine Griezmann — Atletico Madrid
  5. ⚽ Pape Gueye · assist Nicolas Pépé — Villarreal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ayoze Pérez · assist Nicolas Pépé — Villarreal

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
44%
1X2
Villarreal
90-minute result: Villarreal
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
11%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 61% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 23 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 374 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 376 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 73 past matches

1X2 51% (Average)
Both teams to score 64% (Good)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
279 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
179 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
276 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
165 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
305 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
350 predictions

Match overview