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Spain · LaLiga

23 May 2026 19:00 UTC

REAL MADRID vs ATHLETIC CLUB

Final 4:2

Top match Real Madrid won Last goal: Athletic Club

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Gonzalo García · assist Dani Carvajal — Real Madrid
  2. ⚽ Jude Bellingham · assist Thiago Pitarch — Real Madrid
  3. ⚽ Gorka Guruzeta · assist Iñaki Williams — Athletic Club

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kylian Mbappé · assist Álvaro Carreras — Real Madrid
  2. ⚽ Brahim Díaz · assist Thiago Pitarch — Real Madrid
  3. ⚽ Urko Izeta · assist Iñaki Williams — Athletic Club

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
44%
1X2
Real Madrid
90-minute result: Real Madrid
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 54% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 50 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 365 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 367 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 73 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
273 predictions
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
191 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
269 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
160 predictions
Total 3.5 24% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
341 predictions

Match overview