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Spain · LaLiga

23 May 2026 19:00 UTC

VALENCIA vs BARCELONA

Final 3:1

Top match Valencia won Last goal: Valencia

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Robert Lewandowski · assist Ferran Torres — Barcelona
  2. ⚽ Javi Guerra — Valencia
  3. ⚽ Luis Rioja — Valencia
  4. ⚽ Guido Rodríguez — Valencia

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
49%
1X2
Barcelona
90-minute result: Valencia
Lucky hit
38%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
41%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 34% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 96 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 365 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 367 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 73 past matches

1X2 55% (Average)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
273 predictions
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
191 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
269 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
160 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
300 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
341 predictions

Match overview