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Spain · LaLiga

23 May 2026 19:00 UTC

DEPORTIVO ALAVES vs RAYO VALLECANO

Final 1:2

Top match Rayo Vallecano won Last goal: Rayo Vallecano

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Toni Martínez — Deportivo Alaves

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sergio Camello · assist Pathé Ciss — Rayo Vallecano
  2. ⚽ Randy Nteka · assist Sergio Camello — Rayo Vallecano

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
46%
1X2
Deportivo Alaves
90-minute result: Rayo Vallecano
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
13%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
41%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 53% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 106 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 365 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 367 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 72 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
273 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
176 predictions
Total 1.5 26% (Weak)
98 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
207 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
300 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
341 predictions

Match overview