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Uruguay · Segunda Division

24 May 2026 13:00 UTC

LA LUZ vs URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO

Final 2:0

La Luz won Last goal: La Luz

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Gabriel de Leon — La Luz
  2. 🟥 Lucas Ortiz (straight red) — Uruguay Montevideo

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Facundo Sosa — La Luz
  2. 🟥 Francisco Martirena (straight red) — La Luz
  3. 🟥 Bruno Barja (straight red) — Uruguay Montevideo

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Uruguay Montevideo
90-minute result: La Luz
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
20%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 18% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 34% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 225 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 162 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 52% (Average)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 12% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 41 past matches

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 20% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
127 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
69 predictions
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
105 predictions
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
59 predictions
Total 3.5 28% (Weak)
25 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
152 predictions

Match overview