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Poland · Ekstraklasa

18 May 2026 17:00 UTC

ARKA GDYNIA vs TERMALICA NIECIECZA

Final 2:3

Termalica Nieciecza won Last goal: Termalica Nieciecza

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Damian Hilbrycht — Termalica Nieciecza
  2. ⚽ Edu Espiau — Arka Gdynia

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Vladislavs Gutkovskis — Arka Gdynia
  2. ⚽ Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz — Termalica Nieciecza
  3. ⚽ Ivan Durdov — Termalica Nieciecza

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
37%
1X2
Arka Gdynia
90-minute result: Termalica Nieciecza
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 91 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 286 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 287 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 35% (Weak)
200 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
105 predictions
Total 1.5 32% (Weak)
60 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
148 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
224 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
253 predictions

Match overview