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Poland · Ekstraklasa

17 May 2026 12:45 UTC

GKS KATOWICE vs JAGIELLONIA BIALYSTOK

Final 2:2 Almanac Moment

Draw Last goal: GKS Katowice

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Bartosz Nowak — GKS Katowice
  2. ⚽ Bernardo Vital — Jagiellonia Bialystok

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Afimico Pululu (penalty) — Jagiellonia Bialystok
  2. ⚽ Borja Galán — GKS Katowice

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
5%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 99 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 283 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 284 completed matches.

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 68% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 29% (Weak)
86 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
180 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
224 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
137 predictions
Total 3.5 27% (Weak)
62 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
250 predictions

Match overview