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Poland · Ekstraklasa

16 May 2026 18:15 UTC

RADOMIAK RADOM vs LECH POZNAN

Final 1:3

Lech Poznan won Last goal: Lech Poznan

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jan Grzesik — Radomiak Radom
  2. ⚽ Mikael Ishak — Lech Poznan
  3. ⚽ Luis Palma — Lech Poznan

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Patrik Waalemark — Lech Poznan

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Lech Poznan
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 98 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 280 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 281 completed matches.

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 29% (Weak)
85 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
178 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
221 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
146 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
220 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
248 predictions

Match overview