← Back to matches

Switzerland · Challenge League

15 May 2026 18:15 UTC

FC AARAU vs YVERDON SPORT FC

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: Yverdon Sport FC

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ David Akoa — FC Aarau
  2. ⚽ Leon Frokaj — FC Aarau
  3. ⚽ Helios Sessolo — Yverdon Sport FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Antonio Marchesano — Yverdon Sport FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
51%
1X2
FC Aarau
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 69% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 20% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 173 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 168 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
119 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
63 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
129 predictions
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
86 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
118 predictions
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
151 predictions

Match overview