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Switzerland · Challenge League

11 May 2026 18:15 UTC

FC VADUZ vs FC AARAU

Final 1:2

FC Aarau won Last goal: FC Aarau

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Shkelqim Vladi — FC Aarau
  2. ⚽ Milos Cocic — FC Vaduz

2nd half

  1. ⚽ David Akoa — FC Aarau

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
FC Aarau
90-minute result: FC Aarau
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 18 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 168 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 163 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 62 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
116 predictions
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
61 predictions
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
125 predictions
Total 2.5 41% (Weak)
79 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
115 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
147 predictions

Match overview