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Switzerland · Challenge League

11 May 2026 18:15 UTC

AC BELLINZONA vs FC WIL 1900

Final 2:4

FC Wil 1900 won Last goal: FC Wil 1900

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Simone Rapp (penalty) — FC Wil 1900
  2. ⚽ Willy Vogt (penalty) — AC Bellinzona

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Luke Breedijk — FC Wil 1900
  2. ⚽ Loris Schreiber — FC Wil 1900
  3. ⚽ Aarón Rey (penalty) — AC Bellinzona
  4. ⚽ Marwane Hajij — FC Wil 1900

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
AC Bellinzona
90-minute result: FC Wil 1900
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
6%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 36 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 168 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 163 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
116 predictions
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
61 predictions
Total 1.5 16% (Weak)
38 predictions
Total 2.5 41% (Weak)
79 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
115 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
147 predictions

Match overview