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England · National League · National League South Playoff

09 May 2026 14:00 UTC

HORNCHURCH vs TORQUAY

Final 3:2

Hornchurch advanced Last goal: Hornchurch

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Deon Moore — Torquay
  2. ⚽ Dominic Poleon (penalty) — Hornchurch

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Deon Moore — Torquay
  2. ⚽ Darren McQueen — Hornchurch

Extra time

  1. ⚽ Sam Ling — Hornchurch

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
39%
1X2
Torquay
90-minute result: Draw
Advanced: Hornchurch
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2 (90 min)

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 209 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,034 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1089 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 89 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 42% (Weak)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
822 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
649 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
873 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
598 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
762 predictions
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
952 predictions

Match overview