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Switzerland · Challenge League

08 May 2026 18:15 UTC

FC AARAU vs FC STADE NYONNAIS

Final 5:1

FC Aarau won Last goal: FC Aarau

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Daniel Afriyie — FC Aarau
  2. ⚽ Melvin Mastil (own goal) — FC Aarau
  3. ⚽ Leon Frokaj — FC Aarau
  4. ⚽ Leorat Bega — FC Stade Nyonnais
  5. ⚽ Olivier Jaeckle — FC Aarau
  6. ⚽ Elias Filet — FC Aarau

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
FC Aarau
90-minute result: FC Aarau
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 59% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 29 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 163 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 158 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
112 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
58 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
122 predictions
Total 2.5 41% (Weak)
75 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
111 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
143 predictions

Match overview