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Netherlands · Eredivisie

02 May 2026 18:00 UTC

AJAX vs PSV EINDHOVEN

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: Ajax

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ricardo Pepi · assist Yarek Gasiorowski — PSV Eindhoven
  2. ⚽ Anton Gaaei · assist Mika Godts — Ajax

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Myron Boadu — PSV Eindhoven
  2. ⚽ Mika Godts — Ajax

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
54%
1X2
PSV Eindhoven
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
53%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
89%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
64%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
68%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
79%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 30 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 275 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 278 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 55% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 60 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
Total 1.5 90% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
Total 4.5 57% (Good)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
208 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
91 predictions
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
242 predictions
Total 2.5 39% (Weak)
99 predictions
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
179 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
238 predictions

Match overview