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Netherlands · Eredivisie

02 May 2026 16:45 UTC

FC GRONINGEN vs EXCELSIOR

Final 2:3

Excelsior won Last goal: Excelsior

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Tika de Jonge · assist David van der Werff — FC Groningen
  2. ⚽ Casper Widell · assist Emil Hansson — Excelsior

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Younes Taha · assist Tika de Jonge — FC Groningen
  2. ⚽ Derensili Sanches Fernandes · assist Rick Meissen — Excelsior
  3. ⚽ Gyan de Regt · assist Arthur Zagré — Excelsior

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Lucky hit
Underdog
29%
1X2
Excelsior
90-minute result: Excelsior
As expected
53%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
89%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
68%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
79%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
0:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 27% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 275 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 278 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 55% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 61 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
208 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
91 predictions
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
242 predictions
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
179 predictions
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
179 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
238 predictions

Match overview