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Poland · Ekstraklasa

26 Jul 2026 15:30 UTC

WIDZEW LODZ vs MOTOR LUBLIN

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: Motor Lublin

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Sebastian Bergier (own goal) — Motor Lublin
  2. ⚽ Mariusz Fornalczyk — Widzew Lodz
  3. ⚽ Sebastian Bergier (penalty) — Widzew Lodz

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Mbaye Ndiaye — Motor Lublin

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 101 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 301 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 369 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 79 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)
101 predictions
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
155 predictions
Total 1.5 27% (Weak)
84 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
193 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
287 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
327 predictions

Match overview