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Poland · Ekstraklasa

25 Jul 2026 12:45 UTC

JAGIELLONIA BIALYSTOK vs KORONA KIELCE

Final 1:0

Jagiellonia Bialystok won Last goal: Jagiellonia Bialystok

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nik Prelec — Jagiellonia Bialystok

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Jagiellonia Bialystok
90-minute result: Jagiellonia Bialystok
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Big miss
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 38 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 298 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 366 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 77 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 36% (Weak)
265 predictions
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
152 predictions
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
283 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
190 predictions
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
284 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
324 predictions

Match overview