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Kazakhstan · Premier League

26 Jul 2026 13:00 UTC

TOBOL KOSTANAY vs ATYRAU

Final 1:0

Tobol Kostanay won Last goal: Tobol Kostanay

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Uros Milovanovic — Tobol Kostanay

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Sanzhar Satanov (straight red) — Atyrau

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Tobol Kostanay
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 85 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 32% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 246 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 302 completed matches.

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 77 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 33% (Weak)
85 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
165 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
210 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
123 predictions
Total 3.5 28% (Weak)
50 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
276 predictions

Match overview