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USA · Major League Soccer

26 Jul 2026 02:30 UTC

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LA GALAXY

Final 1:1 Almanac Moment

Draw Last goal: San Jose Earthquakes

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Joseph Paintsil · assist Marco Reus — LA Galaxy

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Reid Roberts — San Jose Earthquakes

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
37%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
7%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 156 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 542 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 659 completed matches.

1X2 26% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 85 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 26% (Weak)
155 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
404 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
525 predictions
Total 2.5 37% (Weak)
263 predictions
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
436 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
553 predictions

Match overview