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USA · Major League Soccer

25 Jul 2026 23:30 UTC

NEW YORK CITY FC vs CHICAGO FIRE FC

Final 3:1

New York City FC won Last goal: New York City FC

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Nicolás Fernández — New York City FC
  2. ⚽ Joel Waterman — Chicago Fire FC
  3. ⚽ Agustín Ojeda · assist Andrés Perea — New York City FC
  4. ⚽ Malachi Jones · assist Agustín Ojeda — New York City FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
39%
1X2
New York City FC
90-minute result: New York City FC
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
25%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
4:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 77 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 536 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 659 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 89 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
504 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
404 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
525 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
396 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
223 predictions
Total 4.5 25% (Weak)
106 predictions

Match overview