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USA · Major League Soccer

26 Jul 2026 01:30 UTC

SAN DIEGO FC vs FC DALLAS

Final 1:0

San Diego FC won Last goal: San Diego FC

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Alejandro Alvarado · assist Manu Duah — San Diego FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
FC Dallas
90-minute result: San Diego FC
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Big miss
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 52 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 542 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 659 completed matches.

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 88 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 66% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 41% (Weak)
504 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
404 predictions
Total 1.5 79% (Strong)
525 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
396 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
223 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
553 predictions

Match overview