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Russia · First League

26 Jul 2026 14:00 UTC

TORPEDO MOSCOW vs SHINNIK YAROSLAVL

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Torpedo Moscow

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Denis Mironov — Shinnik Yaroslavl

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Aleksey Kashtanov — Torpedo Moscow

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 41% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 71 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 329 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 389 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 81 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Weak)
253 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
167 predictions
Total 1.5 28% (Weak)
111 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
238 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
322 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
365 predictions

Match overview