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Russia · First League

26 Jul 2026 15:00 UTC

PFC SOCHI vs ARSENAL TULA

Final 5:0

PFC Sochi won Last goal: PFC Sochi

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mikhail Ignatov — PFC Sochi
  2. ⚽ Pavel Meleshin — PFC Sochi
  3. ⚽ Mikhail Ignatov — PFC Sochi

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Mikhail Ignatov — PFC Sochi
  2. ⚽ Zakhar Fedorov — PFC Sochi
  3. 🟥 Yaroslav Krashevskiy (2nd yellow) — Arsenal Tula

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
PFC Sochi
90-minute result: PFC Sochi
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
8%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 5:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 46% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 39 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 31% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 329 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 389 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 96% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Weak)
253 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
167 predictions
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
278 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
238 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
322 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
365 predictions

Match overview