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Mexico · Liga MX · Liga MX Apertura

22 Jul 2026 03:05 UTC

TOLUCA vs CLUB UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL

Final 1:2

Club Universidad Nacional won Last goal: Club Universidad Nacional

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jorge Diaz — Toluca

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Victor Arteaga — Club Universidad Nacional
  2. ⚽ Francisco Cordova — Club Universidad Nacional

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
45%
1X2
Club Universidad Nacional
90-minute result: Club Universidad Nacional
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
37%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
9%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 19 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 346 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 386 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 94 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
274 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
233 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
303 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
187 predictions
Total 3.5 35% (Weak)
78 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
353 predictions

Match overview