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Mexico · Liga MX · Liga MX Apertura

19 Jul 2026 01:05 UTC

MONTERREY vs SANTOS LAGUNA

Final 3:2

Monterrey won Last goal: Santos Laguna

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Lucas Ocampos — Monterrey
  2. ⚽ Lucas Ocampos — Monterrey
  3. ⚽ Jesús Corona — Monterrey
  4. ⚽ Lucas Di Yorio — Santos Laguna

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Eduardo Aguirre — Santos Laguna

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Monterrey
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
6%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 110 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 343 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 79 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 27% (Weak)
108 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
228 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
297 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
191 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
299 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
344 predictions

Match overview