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Mexico · Liga MX · Liga MX Apertura

17 Jul 2026 01:00 UTC

NECAXA vs ATLANTE

Final 2:1

Necaxa won Last goal: Necaxa

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Eugenio Pizzuto — Atlante
  2. ⚽ Julián Carranza (penalty) — Necaxa
  3. ⚽ Miguel Pedroza — Necaxa

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
Necaxa
90-minute result: Necaxa
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 54% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 98 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 337 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 40 past matches

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)
269 predictions
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
149 predictions
Total 1.5 18% (Weak)
80 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
191 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
299 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
344 predictions

Match overview