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Mexico · Liga MX · Liga MX Apertura

18 Jul 2026 01:00 UTC

LEON vs ATLAS

Final 2:3

Atlas won Last goal: Leon

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Duk — Atlas
  2. ⚽ Diber Cambindo — Leon
  3. 🟥 Diber Cambindo (straight red) — Leon

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Arturo González — Atlas
  2. ⚽ Aldo Rocha (penalty) — Atlas
  3. ⚽ Jordi Cortizo — Leon

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Atlas
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 27% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 109 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 339 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 75 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 27% (Weak)
108 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
228 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
297 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
191 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
299 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
344 predictions

Match overview