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Mexico · Liga MX · Liga MX Apertura

17 Jul 2026 03:10 UTC

TIJUANA vs TIGRES

Final 3:1

Tijuana won Last goal: Tijuana

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ramiro Árciga — Tijuana
  2. 🟥 Rodrigo Aguirre (straight red) — Tigres

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jonathan Herrera — Tigres
  2. ⚽ Mourad Daoudi (penalty) — Tijuana
  3. ⚽ Mourad Daoudi — Tijuana

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Tijuana
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
9%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 27% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 108 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 337 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 87 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
Total 1.5 55% (Good)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 27% (Weak)
108 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
228 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
297 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
191 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
299 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
344 predictions

Match overview