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Finland · Veikkausliiga

18 Jul 2026 12:00 UTC

HJK vs VPS

Final 2:1

HJK won Last goal: HJK

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Santeri Haarala — HJK

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Simon Lindholm — VPS
  2. ⚽ Teemu Pukki (penalty) — HJK

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: HJK
Solid call
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 79 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 212 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 263 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 85 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
79 predictions
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
156 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
203 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
132 predictions
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
197 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
233 predictions

Match overview