← Back to matches

International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Final Stage

06 Jul 2026 01:00 UTC

MEXICO vs ENGLAND

Final 2:3

Top match England won Last goal: Mexico

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jude Bellingham · assist Bukayo Saka — England
  2. ⚽ Jude Bellingham · assist Harry Kane — England
  3. ⚽ Julián Quiñones — Mexico

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Jarell Quansah (straight red) — England
  2. ⚽ Harry Kane (penalty) — England
  3. ⚽ Raúl Jiménez (penalty) — Mexico

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
48%
1X2
England
90-minute result: England
Lucky hit
38%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
58%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
44%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
82%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
29%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 50% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 6 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 85 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 81 completed matches.

1X2 58% (Good)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 15% (Good)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 7 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 86% (Strong)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
Total 2.5 71% (Strong)
Total 3.5 86% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 29% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 58% (Good)
69 predictions
Both teams to score 65% (Strong)
46 predictions
Total 1.5 82% (Strong)
66 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
42 predictions
Total 3.5 39% (Weak)
18 predictions
Total 4.5 11% (Weak)
9 predictions

Match overview