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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Grp. F

25 Jun 2026 23:00 UTC

TUNISIA vs NETHERLANDS

Final 1:3 Almanac Moment

Top match Netherlands won Last goal: Netherlands

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ellyes Skhiri (own goal) — Netherlands
  2. ⚽ Brian Brobbey · assist Virgil van Dijk — Netherlands

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Hazem Mastouri · assist Hannibal Mejbri — Tunisia
  2. ⚽ Jan Paul van Hecke · assist Tijjani Reijnders — Netherlands

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
43%
1X2
Netherlands
90-minute result: Netherlands
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
64%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
5%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 3 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 46 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 42 completed matches.

1X2 68% (Strong)
Both teams to score 71% (Strong)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 55% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 26% (Strong)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 4 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 100% (Strong)
Both teams to score 25% (Weak)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 0% (Weak)
Total 4.5 50% (Average)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 68% (Strong)
34 predictions
Both teams to score 83% (Strong)
18 predictions
Total 1.5 87% (Strong)
31 predictions
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
14 predictions
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
39 predictions
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
40 predictions

Match overview