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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Grp. E

25 Jun 2026 20:00 UTC

ECUADOR vs GERMANY

Final 2:1

Top match Ecuador won Last goal: Ecuador

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Leroy Sané · assist Florian Wirtz — Germany
  2. ⚽ Nilson Angulo · assist Pedro Vite — Ecuador

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Gonzalo Plata · assist Kevin Rodríguez — Ecuador

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Germany
90-minute result: Ecuador
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
33%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 57% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 7 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 46 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 48 completed matches.

1X2 62% (Good)
Both teams to score 69% (Strong)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 23% (Strong)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 3 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 100% (Strong)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 33% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 62% (Good)
39 predictions
Both teams to score 77% (Strong)
22 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
36 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Good)
17 predictions
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
44 predictions
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
46 predictions

Match overview